COVID19 Regression Model and Other Thoughts

March 28, 2020
I am not an epidemiologist but do regression modeling for a living. I have done regression modeling to predict student grades just after the first test, and now we will be using adaptive learning metrics to improve our identification schemes even earlier in the semester. It is not to spell boom or doom to a student but only to intervene early with personalized recommendations.
Looking at whatever data I can use and have time to scrape, four things are reasonably clear at this time to me about COVID19.
1) First, the rate of infection is exponential but it does not stay like that forever.  The logistic function of the infection rate is analogous to how the mass of a moving rocket decreases as it burns up its fuel. F=ma, but m is not a constant.
2) Second, President Trump is finally thinking about quarantining NY, NJ, CT area. A little late but it will definitely decrease the power of the exponent.
3) Third, we have to get more testing done but one which is totally random. We could have found the effect of the spring breakers coming to FL and of the college kids being sent home to parents who are having kids late in life. Please do not send your grandkids to grandpa/grandma’s retirement home. They may be the children of the corn.
4) Fourth, Florida and Louisiana need to get their head straightened out and use tougher rules to keep people inside and a method to keep outsiders out. They are the next hot zone.